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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the broader economic backdrop, including why interest rates are likely to remain steady for now, how household spending and cost pressures are shaping the outlook, and why global sharemarkets are being driven less by local conditions and more by international themes such as investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with long-term returns ultimately depending on earnings and business fundamentals.

Tune in from 37:54 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how Black Friday has evolved from a U.S. curiosity into Australia’s biggest retail event, now eclipsing even Boxing Day. I explained how the surge in discounting can pull Christmas spending forward and boost sales – but how it can also put pressure on retailer margins. I explored how this day can provide useful clues about consumer sentiment, inflation and overall economic activity. We also touched on the risks of shoppers leaning too heavily on credit, the seasonal jobs created by these major sales events, and why the growing list of endless promotions has effectively turned the year into one long discount cycle.

Tune into the episode from 1:42:25 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope. Today we’re seeing super-charged share prices, huge data-centre spending, complex vendor-financing deals and big losses at firms like OpenAI. Whether this proves a correction or a bust is unknowable, so my message to investors was simple: regularly rebalance and diversify beyond the AI winners.

Tune into the full episode from 4:49 here: ABC Nightlife Finance 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss why cash is making a comeback – despite the rise of digital payments – and why it still plays an important role in budgeting, privacy, and accessibility. We also touched on the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence and whether those investments can truly deliver the returns investors expect.

You can listen to the full episode from 14:13 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Radio.

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Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending. I explained that while Mark Zuckerberg insists the investment will eventually pay off, the scale of AI infrastructure costs – potentially US$3–5 trillion by 2030 – means companies will need extraordinary revenues to justify the outlay. History shows transformative technologies often enrich consumers more than investors, and while today’s firms are profitable – unlike in 1999 – the “build-now, profit-later” mentality risks colliding with commercial reality.

Catch the full episode from 1:43:29 ABC Statewide Drive here.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower. I explained that while a correction isn’t inevitable, there are promising opportunities in smaller, innovative companies that are starting to outperform larger ones.

You can listen to the full episode from 39:45 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.

Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

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Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens. I explained why investors shouldn’t react to monthly data but instead stay focused on quality businesses and consider diversifying into alternatives like private credit or arbitrage funds to stay balanced in a volatile market.

Listen in from 1:48:17 on ABC Statewide Drive.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how everyday items can shed light on global economics. I explained “doughnut economics,” which looks at balancing human needs with environmental limits, and compared it with purchasing power tools like the Big Mac and Mars Bar Indexes. These offer a quick look at currency values and living costs but are they too simple to capture the full picture?

Listen in from 37:07 on ABC Newcastle Mornings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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